PH Economic Outlook 2025 Overview: Insights from Jaffar Al-Rikabi presented at the UPCBAAA AGM
At the UP College of Business Administration Alumni Association (UPCBAAA) annual meeting on June 23, 2025, World Bank Senior Economist Jaffar Al-Rikabi shared insights from the Philippines Economic Update. Despite steady fundamentals, the World Bank projects a modest GDP growth of 5.4% for Q1 2025, down from 5.9% last year—signaling caution amid global turbulence.
Key Highlights of PH Economic Outlook 2025
- Slower growth driven by weakened exports, global policy uncertainty, and softening services and industry
- Private consumption remains resilient, buoyed by improved employment
- Headline inflation down to 1.9%, core inflation at 2.3%
- Fiscal deficit widened to 7.3%, fueled by election-related and social spending
- Public debt at ~62% of GDP—manageable but in need of prudent controls
Explore the full update → World Bank Philippines Economic Update
Risk Factors Affecting PH Economic Outlook 2025 External and domestic risks tilt the outlook to the downside:
External and domestic risks tilt the outlook to the downside:
- Global headwinds: GPUI Index shows persistent policy uncertainty
- Export-driven sectors and labor-export economies are vulnerable
- Technology adoption (AI, automation) may disrupt OFW and BPO job markets if unaddressed
- Local risks include weather-driven inflation and policy misalignment
World Bank’s Policy Recommendations for PH Economic Outlook 2025 Fiscal Reform
Fiscal Reform
- Close tax compliance gaps
- Align spending with medium-term fiscal goals
- Improve expenditure efficiency
Structural Reform
- Focus infrastructure investment on jobs and skil
- Streamline business regulations
- Attract private sector capital
About the Speaker
Jaffar Al-Rikabi is a Senior Economist in the World Bank’s Fiscal Policy and Sustainable Growth Unit, with experience at UNDP, Accenture, and country offices across Southeast Asia. His work focuses on how tax and fiscal policy support digital transformation and inclusive growth. Learn more:
Final Word
“Still good times for the Philippines, but it’s time to rebuild fiscal buffers and push key reforms while the window is open.” — Jaffar Al-Rikabi, World Bank
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